Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 XBB variant derived from recombination of two Omicron subvariants.

In late 2022, SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants have become highly diversified, and XBB is spreading rapidly around the world. Our phylogenetic analyses suggested that XBB emerged through the recombination of two cocirculating BA.2 lineages, BJ.1 and BM.1.1.1 (a progeny of BA.2.75), during the summer of 2022. XBB.1 is the variant most profoundly resistant to BA.2/5 breakthrough infection sera to date and is more fusogenic than BA.2.75. The recombination breakpoint is located in the receptor-binding domain of spike, and each region of the recombinant spike confers immune evasion and increases fusogenicity. We further provide the structural basis for the interaction between XBB.1 spike and human ACE2. Finally, the intrinsic pathogenicity of XBB.1 in male hamsters is comparable to or even lower than that of BA.2.75. Our multiscale investigation provides evidence suggesting that XBB is the first observed SARS-CoV-2 variant to increase its fitness through recombination rather than substitutions.

Convergent evolution of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron subvariants leading to the emergence of BQ.1.1 variant.

In late 2022, various Omicron subvariants emerged and cocirculated worldwide. These variants convergently acquired amino acid substitutions at critical residues in the spike protein, including residues R346, K444, L452, N460, and F486. Here, we characterize the convergent evolution of Omicron subvariants and the properties of one recent lineage of concern, BQ.1.1. Our phylogenetic analysis suggests that these five substitutions are recurrently acquired, particularly in younger Omicron lineages. Epidemic dynamics modelling suggests that the five substitutions increase viral fitness, and a large proportion of the fitness variation within Omicron lineages can be explained by these substitutions. Compared to BA.5, BQ.1.1 evades breakthrough BA.2 and BA.5 infection sera more efficiently, as demonstrated by neutralization assays. The pathogenicity of BQ.1.1 in hamsters is lower than that of BA.5. Our multiscale investigations illuminate the evolutionary rules governing the convergent evolution for known Omicron lineages as of 2022.

Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant.

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant emerged in May 2022. BA.2.75 is a BA.2 descendant but is phylogenetically distinct from BA.5, the currently predominant BA.2 descendant. Here, we show that BA.2.75 has a greater effective reproduction number and different immunogenicity profile than BA.5. We determined the sensitivity of BA.2.75 to vaccinee and convalescent sera as well as a panel of clinically available antiviral drugs and antibodies. Antiviral drugs largely retained potency, but antibody sensitivity varied depending on several key BA.2.75-specific substitutions. The BA.2.75 spike exhibited a profoundly higher affinity for its human receptor, ACE2. Additionally, the fusogenicity, growth efficiency in human alveolar epithelial cells, and intrinsic pathogenicity in hamsters of BA.2.75 were greater than those of BA.2. Our multilevel investigations suggest that BA.2.75 acquired virological properties independent of BA.5, and the potential risk of BA.2.75 to global health is greater than that of BA.5.

Structural Insight into the Resistance of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 Variants to Cilgavimab.

We have recently revealed that the new SARS-CoV-2 Omicron sublineages BA.4 and BA.5 exhibit increased resistance to cilgavimab, a therapeutic monoclonal antibody, and the resistance to cilgavimab is attributed to the spike L452R substitution. However, it remains unclear how the spike L452R substitution renders resistance to cilgavimab. Here, we demonstrated that the increased resistance to cilgavimab of the spike L452R is possibly caused by the steric hindrance between cilgavimab and its binding interface on the spike. Our results suggest the importance of developing therapeutic antibodies that target SARS-CoV-2 variants harboring the spike L452R substitution.

Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant

The SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant emerged in May 2022. BA.2.75 is a BA.2 descendant but is phylogenetically distinct from BA.5, the currently predominant BA.2 descendant. Here, we show that BA.2.75 has a greater effective reproduction number and different immunogenicity profile than BA.5. We determined the sensitivity of BA.2.75 to vaccinee and convalescent sera as well as a panel of clinically available antiviral drugs and antibodies. Antiviral drugs largely retained potency but antibody sensitivity varied depending on several key BA.2.75-specific substitutions. The BA.2.75 spike exhibited a profoundly higher affinity for its human receptor, ACE2. Additionally, the fusogenicity, growth efficiency in human alveolar epithelial cells, and intrinsic pathogenicity in hamsters of BA.2.75 were greater than those of BA.2. Our multilevel investigations suggest that BA.2.75 acquired virological properties independent of BA.5, and the potential risk of BA.2.75 to global health is greater than that of BA.5. Graphical Saito and G2P-Japan Consortium et al. elucidate the virological properties of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2.75 variant. BA.2.75 is more transmissible than BA.5, and exhibits different antigenicity than BA.2 and BA.5. The BA.2.75 spike exhibits higher affinity to ACE2 and higher fusogenicity, and BA.2.75 is more pathogenic than BA.2 in hamsters.

Virological characteristics of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 subvariants, including BA.4 and BA.5.

After the global spread of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2, some BA.2 subvariants, including BA.2.9.1, BA.2.11, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5, emerged in multiple countries. Our statistical analysis showed that the effective reproduction numbers of these BA.2 subvariants are greater than that of the original BA.2. Neutralization experiments revealed that the immunity induced by BA.1/2 infections is less effective against BA.4/5. Cell culture experiments showed that BA.2.12.1 and BA.4/5 replicate more efficiently in human alveolar epithelial cells than BA.2, and particularly, BA.4/5 is more fusogenic than BA.2. We further provided the structure of the BA.4/5 spike receptor-binding domain that binds to human ACE2 and considered how the substitutions in the BA.4/5 spike play roles in ACE2 binding and immune evasion. Moreover, experiments using hamsters suggested that BA.4/5 is more pathogenic than BA.2. Our multiscale investigations suggest that the risk of BA.2 subvariants, particularly BA.4/5, to global health is greater than that of original BA.2.

Measuring Employer-to-Employer Reallocation

We revisit measurement of Employer-to-Employer (EE) transitions, the main engine of labor market competition and employment reallocation, in the monthly Current Population Survey (CPS). We follow Fallick and Fleischman (2004) and exploit a key survey question introduced with the 1994 CPS redesign. We detect a sudden and sharp increase in the incidence of missing answers to this question starting in 2007, when the U.S. Census Bureau introduced a change in survey methodology, the Respondent Identification Policy (RIP). We show evidence of selection into answering the EE question by both observable and unobservable worker characteristics that correlate with EE mobility. We propose a selection model and a procedure to impute missing answers to the key survey question, thus EE transitions, after the introduction of the RIP. Our imputed aggregate EE series restores a close congruence with the business cycle, especially with the onset of the Great Recession, exhibits a much less dramatic drop in 2008-2009 and a full recovery by 2016, and eliminates the spurious appearance of declining EE dynamism in the US labor market after 2000. We also offer the first evidence of the (large and negative) impact of the COVID-19 crisis on EE reallocation.